The 2026 Election Risk Heat Map scores 733 counties across 23 states. The other 27 states are not scored low. They are not scored at all: the model only covers states with close contests. Louisiana erased a majority-Black congressional district by law this year. Tennessee cracked Memphis. Alabama is running a contested map under a Supreme Court stay. None of them ever makes it into the data. Flip the toggle.
Every number on this view comes straight from the tool's own public data file. States show the Statewide Election Risk Index (1 to 100). Tap a covered state for its full county list. Tap a grey state and see what the model cannot see.
All of their numbers below are from their own data file. All of the redistricting facts are current as of the v5 movement brief, July 30, 2026.
Sources: the 2026 Election Risk Heat Map, published by Voting Rights Lab; Experiments4Good's Post-Callais + Election Defense Movement Brief v5; and electionriskmap.org.
"The Map They Made": all state and county Election Risk Index values are reproduced verbatim from the Heat Map's public data file (generated July 22, 2026; pulled August 1, 2026). The tool's methodology gates coverage on electoral competitiveness; by its own explainer, states without close contests "appear grey" because disputes there are "unlikely to gain traction." The 27 grey states on this view are absent from the data file entirely. They are unscored, not low-scoring. The tool's index bands: Moderate 1–20, Elevated 21–40, High 41–60, Very High 61–80, Extreme 81–100.
"The Whole Map": Experiments4Good's Post-Callais + Election Defense Movement Brief v5, refreshed July 30, 2026. Composite of Callais redistricting status, election defense classifications synced with electionriskmap.org (verified against the Brennan Center and UW State Democracy trackers), and 2026 battleground overlap. Scores run 0 to 10, with the weights published here: redistricting status scores live 4, enacted harm 3, pending 3, enacted Democratic counter-redraw 1, none 0; election defense scores critical 4, high 3, complied 3, elevated 2, moderate 1, none 0; battleground overlap adds 2. Complied scores level with high because surrendered voter data is exposure realized, not risk avoided. The gap between enacted harm and enacted counter-redraw keys to majority-minority district harm, not party. And battleground status here is an additive two-point input on a map that scores every state; it is not a gate that decides which states exist in the data.
"The Synthesis": compares verdicts, not numbers. The two instruments measure different things on different scales across different coverage, so no blended score is computed. A state is flagged by their instrument at Very High or Extreme (index 61 or above) and by ours at Tier 1 or 2 (composite 6 or above); blind spots are states absent from their data that clear the same Tier 1 or 2 bar on ours.
County denominator: 3,143 counties and county equivalents across the 50 states, per the U.S. Census Bureau's current count of 3,144 including the District of Columbia (a count that includes Connecticut's nine planning regions, recognized as county equivalents in place of its eight historical counties). D.C. sits outside both instruments' scope and is excluded here. 733 counties have a row in the risk data. 2,410 do not.
Built by Experiments4Good. This page critiques a framework, not an organization's intentions. Both maps agree the threat is real. They disagree about who counts.